The global polysilicon production capacity will reach three times of the current one.
the polysilicon raw material bottleneck that has been restricting the development of the solar industry may be broken in two years. Chenjinchong, an energy analyst at UBS group, said in Shanghai yesterday that by 2010, the global polysilicon production capacity will triple the current level, and China will become a global leader in the field of solar energy
"at present, the development of solar energy industry is mainly restricted by the high cost of polysilicon. However, we predict that by 2010, the global polysilicon production capacity will be three times that of now." Chenjinchong said
it is worth noting that what is the future development direction of this part of new capacity? " With the concerns of these industries, we should come from China. Chenjinchong said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News, "we expect that in about three years, China will establish large-scale polysilicon production plants using improved Siemens technology. In this way, the production cost of polysilicon will fall to the level of those leading manufacturers in the current market. At that time, China will also become a global leader in the field of solar energy."
however, he also believes that the triple supply of polysilicon capacity does not mean that the bottleneck will be broken. "It also depends on the market demand. Because the demand elasticity of the photovoltaic market is still very large, it is possible that Tianjin will generate new demand as the price falls."
however, shizhengrong, a leading figure in the domestic photovoltaic industry and chairman of Suntech Power, has previously publicly stated that China is not a suitable country for manufacturing polysilicon because the electricity charge is too expensive and the production of polysilicon is not in line with the scientific concept of development. In his opinion, investment in polysilicon should go to Canada, the United States, Australia and other countries with relatively low electricity bills
jianshuishui, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, also wrote that enterprises producing polysilicon generally adopt the improved Siemens method. Using this method, a 1kW solar cell requires about 10kg of polysilicon, consumes 5800 ~ 6000 degrees of power, and consumes a huge amount of power. Even if the battery can be used stably for 20 years as an indispensable testing equipment for physical property experiments, teaching research, quality control, etc., the electric energy regeneration ratio of solar cells is less than 8, which is low
however, some people in the industry also disagree with this. Pengxiaofeng, chairman of Jiangxi Saiwei, who started the 10000 ton polysilicon material project last year, previously said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News that the technology they used did not consume so much electricity. Their short-term goal is to make the cost of photovoltaic power generation cheaper than that of wind energy
as for the cost, chenjinchong pointed out that in some areas with sufficient light energy, the cost of solar power generation is very competitive compared with traditional power plants
according to him, the manufacturing cost of solar cells has been very close to the peak cost of traditional power plants. "In addition, the cost of solar cells will be reduced by 20% as the installed capacity of 1000 professional and technical talents and senior managers with training prospects in the province are promoted to domestic universities for further education. According to historical experience, the cost can be reduced by 5% every year."
the annual report on China's new energy industry 2007 released recently shows that the planned capacity of polysilicon built and under construction in China is as high as 63560 tons, and about 18000 tons of annual polysilicon production capacity will be formed by 2008