Overview of the hottest market international crude

2022-08-06
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Market Overview: international crude oil fell, PE market price continued to fall

I. market overview

international crude oil prices fell, Asian naphtha prices fell, and Asian ethylene fell. The ex factory prices of PE from major manufacturers are mainly stable, the linear and low-voltage prices remain stable, and individual high-voltage prices are reduced. The price of PE in the domestic market fell slightly, and the price in some regions was stable. The price of upstream raw materials fell, crude oil fell sharply, Liansu futures continued to fall, the market atmosphere was pessimistic, and the market price fell slightly. There were not many stocks in the market, and the downstream demand was scarce. Limited by the petrochemical cost price, there was little room for negotiation

II. Fundamental analysis

1. Under the heavy pressure of the European debt crisis and the rise of the US dollar, international oil prices fell sharply on the 19th, with oil prices in New York and London both falling by more than 2.5%. At the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell sharply by US $2.26 to US $85.70 per barrel, or 2.60%, and the lowest intraday drop was US $84.79 per barrel. London North Sea Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell by $3.08 to close at $109.14 a barrel, down 2.74%

2. As the price of Brent crude oil fell, the price of naphtha in Asia was at a two-day low on Monday. In the first half of November, the price of naphtha naf-1h-tyo in Japan fell by $11 to $973 per ton. Supply and demand: traders revealed on Monday that gunvor had temporarily booked about 75000 tons of naphtha from tuapse, Russia, and arrived in Asia from the end of October to the beginning of November to take advantage of the strong demand for heavy naphtha. Another seller may be preparing to ship about 80000 tons of skikda splitter grade naphtha to Asia in October. European refineries are reducing operations or implementing maintenance and overhaul to cope with the dilemma of narrowing gross profit due to strong crude oil prices. This continues to restrict the entry of European naphtha into Asia, which received an average of 330000 tons of Western naphtha per month in 2010. The expected decrease in supply will offset the impact of weak demand in Taiwan. Formosa Plastics did not restart the No. 1 cracking unit with an annual processing capacity of 700000 tons as expected, which may be due to continuous maintenance work. A trader pointed out that the market is currently dominated by heavy naphtha rather than Japanese open specification grade naphtha. The extension of shutdown and overhaul period of Formosa Plastics may have limited impact on market sentiment

3. On September 19, the closing price of ethylene market in Asia fell, and CFR Northeast Asia fell by US $1 at 1102 USD 5/ton; CFR Southeast Asia fell $1 to offer 1088 5 dollars/ton. The Japanese trading market was temporarily closed due to public holidays. The support of terminal demand is still weak, especially in PE and SM markets. Some people said that the inventory in China's domestic market is on the high side. In view of the fact that Formosa Petrochemical's No. 1 steam cracking unit with an annual output of 700000 tons has not been restarted, most market participants were in the wait-and-see stage on Monday. The atmosphere in the Southeast Asian market is also weak. The buyer's market lacks confidence in the future market and has a strong wait-and-see mood

4. Today, the ex factory prices of PE from major manufacturers are mainly stable, linear and low-voltage prices remain stable, and individual high-voltage prices are reduced. Linearity: 7042 mainstream quotation range of major manufacturers: yuan/ton. The brand price of each manufacturer remained stable; Low voltage: the mainstream 5000S quotation range of major manufacturers is RMB/ton, and the brand price of each manufacturer remains stable; In terms of high voltage, 2426h is reported to be in the range of yuan/ton, and Shanghai Petrochemical lowered the ex factory price by 200 yuan/ton

5. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council will preside over the executive meeting of the State Council on the 19th to study and deploy the construction and management of projects with a sharp rise in affordable housing packaging materials, 5 gold, components, panels, circuit boards, sponges, fabrics and other materials. The meeting requested that the central government continue to increase financial subsidies and local governments should also increase financial investment for the construction of affordable housing. The meeting also pointed out that banking financial institutions can directly issue loans to eligible public rental housing projects, and can also issue loans to eligible local government financing platform companies. Public rental housing projects are allowed to plan and build supporting commercial service facilities to achieve capital balance. Experts from the Ministry of housing and urban rural development pointed out that with the full domestic support of the central government, the construction of 10million affordable housing units this year will certainly be completed

III. market conditions 5) overview of unit test pieces

crude oil prices in New York fell, naphtha prices in Asia fell, and ethylene prices in Asia fell. The price of PE in the domestic market fell slightly, and the price in some regions was stable. The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in the domestic market is between yuan/ton, the high-pressure mainstream transaction price is between yuan/ton, and the low-pressure mainstream transaction price is between yuan/ton

1. The price of PE market in North China fell slightly, the market trading was light, the merchants' mentality was pessimistic, the downstream demand was not much, the market was more wait-and-see attitude, the transaction was difficult, and the actual transaction was a single discussion. Linear mainstream price: yuan/ton. Yanshan 5000S reported yuan/ton, Daqing/Lanhua 5000S reported yuan/ton, 5300b reported 11350 yuan/ton, 5502 reported 11150 yuan/ton, 5420 reported 11700 yuan/ton, 8920 reported yuan/ton, 6100m reported 12500 yuan/ton, 9455f reported 11450 yuan/ton, 8008 reported yuan/ton, 2911 reported 11400 yuan/ton, Panjin 5411 reported 11600 yuan/ton, Jihua 7042 reported 10450 yuan/ton, Dushanzi 7042 reported 10450 yuan/ton, Lanhua 7042n reported 10450 yuan/ton, Shenhua 7042k reported 10450 yuan/ton.The

2. The quotation of East China PE market fell slightly, the market inventory was ok, the merchants actively shipped, the downstream was more wait-and-see, there were few inquiries, and more small orders were taken. Limited by the petrochemical price, the space for price negotiation was limited. Linear mainstream price: yuan/ton. Yangzi 1802, Zhenhai 7a, ld100ac 13700, q281 13100, 2426h 12900, tn26 12900, Daqing 5000S 12400, Yangzi 5000S 12400, 2911 11500, 9455f 11500, t 11500, 8008 11700, Panjin 5502s 11200, 5070 12050, Dushanzi 5502 11400

3. The quotation of PE market in South China fell slightly, and Liansu futures continued to fall. The market trading was still cold. The traders' inventory was small, but the supply was still sufficient. The downstream demand did not improve, and there was little room for negotiation on the transaction price. Linear mainstream is yuan/ton. Guangzhou Petrochemical reported 2001 yuan/ton, Maoming 2426h yuan/ton,/yuan/ton, 5000S yuan/ton, 9455f 11750 yuan/ton, 8008 yuan/ton, tr144 yuan/ton; Fujian 218nf reported 10450 yuan/ton; Shenhua 8007 reported 11500 yuan/ton

IV. outlook

there was no effective solution to the European debt crisis. The euro fell, the US dollar rose, weighing on the decline in international crude oil prices, the decline in Asian naphtha prices, and the decline in Asian ethylene. The ex factory prices of PE from major manufacturers are mainly stable, the linear and low-voltage prices remain stable, and individual high-voltage prices are reduced. The price of PE in the domestic market fell slightly, and the price in some regions was stable. The price of upstream raw materials fell, crude oil fell sharply, Liansu futures continued to fall, the market atmosphere was pessimistic, and the market price fell slightly. There were not many stocks in the market, and the downstream demand was scarce. Limited by the petrochemical cost price, there was little room for negotiation. PE market price is expected to be weak in the near future

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